SpaceX (SPCX) shares traded back above the $135 IPO price on Monday for the first time in nearly a month, changing hands near $138 and rising more than 4% according to TradingView data. This recovery follows a recent price slump driven by a massive market shift, as Deutsche Bank doubled down on ambitious revenue projections while retail investors quietly began cashing out.
Deutsche Bank Targets $100 Billion in Annual Revenue
SpaceX aims to reach $100 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by December. Although the target appears aggressive, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu argues the goal remains achievable. In a Monday note featuring a Buy rating and a $235 price target, Yu highlighted that the second quarter run-rate stood at $31 billion, meaning management intends to more than triple that figure within six months, driven largely by neocloud infrastructure and Cursor contributions.
The primary growth engine stems from neocloud, a division where SpaceX rents AI computing power to external clients. AI developer Anthropic paid $1.6 billion last quarter, a figure Yu expects to climb to $3.75 billion in the current quarter. Meanwhile, a deal with Google is projected to reach $920 million per month by October, alongside a $6.7 billion contract expected to ramp up simultaneously. CEO Elon Musk maintains a broader trillion-dollar revenue target for 2030, though SpaceX reported capital expenditures of $18.4 billion during its first quarterly earnings report.
Retail Investors Take Profits as Wall Street Stays Bullish
While institutional analysts remain optimistic, retail investors used the recent market strength to step back. According to data from Vanda Research cited by Reuters, small investors sold a net $4.5 million of SPCX stock on Friday, marking their first net selling session since the June 12 listing. Sam North, a market analyst at trading platform eToro, attributes this behavior to portfolio discipline rather than panic, noting that investors used the rebound to lock in gains since the average retail entry sits near $147.
Market volatility has tested investor patience significantly, with the stock peaking at $225.61 in June before dropping to $104.83 on August 3. Approximately 911.5 million insider shares became tradable following the expiration of the lockup period, causing the float to more than double. Despite the influx of supply, TipRanks data shows SPCX maintains a Moderate Buy consensus among 31 analysts, with an average price target of $229.33 signalling potential upside as upcoming third-quarter financial results approach.
